Consumer Shares: Follow the Direction
We tested what happened when ideas about consumer companies followed their recorded rise or fall direction.
IdeaTestedLive
What this test checks
We tested what happened when ideas about consumer companies followed their recorded rise or fall direction.
- Market moment
- Company earnings updates
- Evidence stage
- Exploratory historical test
- Outcome source
- Recorded source result, not a checked market-price return
What the past showedAcross 617 evaluated records: 334 held up · 281 did not · 2 had no clear move
It worked 54% of the time.
This is a look back at genuine recorded examples. It is a reason to run a fair live test, not a promise about what happens next.
- Clear-direction examples
- 615
- Tested
- 2022–2026
- Different shares
- 69
Show me how you worked it outSee every number, limit and recent example
- Worked
- 334
- Did not work
- 281
- Did not move
- 2
- Result not known
- 130
- Middle recorded result
- +0.6%
- Evidence dates
- 22 Nov 2022 – 7 Aug 2026
Based on this number of examples, the likely range runs from 50% to 58%. A wider range means we are less sure.
What we still need to learn
- The overall past result was close to a fifty-fifty split.
- Some narrower versions were chosen after looking at the results, so they need fresh examples.
- This uses a recorded source result, not a fully checked market-price return.
Recorded examples
Shares in this test include AAP, ABNB, AMZN, APTV, AZO, BBWI, BBY, BKNG, and others.
| Date | Share | Event | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | UAA | Before market opens | Rise | Not known |
| 7 Aug 2026 | UA | Before market opens | Rise | Not known |
| 6 Aug 2026 | PENN | Before market opens | Fall | Not known |
| 6 Aug 2026 | LEG | Before market opens | Rise | Not known |
| 4 Aug 2026 | WYNN | After market closes | Rise | Not known |
| 4 Aug 2026 | MCD | Before market opens | Rise | Not known |
| 4 Aug 2026 | BKNG | After market closes | Rise | Not known |
| 4 Aug 2026 | APTV | Before market opens | Rise | Not known |
| 31 Jul 2026 | NWL | Before market opens | Fall | Not known |
| 29 Jul 2026 | VFC | Before market opens | Rise | Not known |
| 29 Jul 2026 | ORLY | After market closes | Rise | Not known |
| 28 Jul 2026 | CZR | After market closes | Fall | Not known |