Tested idea

Entertainment: Test the Opposite

We tested what happened when an Entertainment idea moved the opposite way to its rise or fall label.

IdeaTestedLive
What this test checks

We tested what happened when an Entertainment idea moved the opposite way to its rise or fall label.

Market moment
Company earnings updates
Evidence stage
Exploratory historical test
Outcome source
Recorded source result, not a checked market-price return
What the past showed

It worked 65% of the time.

This is a look back at genuine recorded examples. It is a reason to run a fair live test, not a promise about what happens next.

Across 61 evaluated records: 39 held up · 21 did not · 1 had no clear move
Clear-direction examples
60
Tested
2023–2026
Different shares
8
Show me how you worked it outSee every number, limit and recent example
Worked
39
Did not work
21
Did not move
1
Result not known
10
Middle recorded result
+2%
Evidence dates
19 Jan 2023 – 7 Aug 2026

Based on this number of examples, the likely range runs from 52% to 76%. A wider range means we are less sure.

What we still need to learn

  • We found this while checking many industries, so chance may have helped it stand out.
  • The result comes from the recorded source result, not an independently checked market price.
  • We have not yet tested this rule on a fully fresh set of examples.

Recorded examples

Shares in this test include ATVI, DIS, EA, LYV, NFLX, PSKY, TKO, TTWO.

Up to 12 recorded examples used by this test.
DateShareEventExpectedResult
7 Aug 2026TTWOBefore market opensFallNot known
5 Aug 2026DISBefore market opensRiseNot known
4 Aug 2026PSKYAfter market closesRiseNot known
3 Aug 2026TKOAfter market closesRiseNot known
16 Jul 2026NFLXAfter market closesRiseNot known
21 May 2026TTWOAfter market closesFallWorked
6 May 2026TKOAfter market closesRiseDid not work
6 May 2026DISBefore market opensRiseWorked
5 May 2026EAAfter market closesFallWorked
4 May 2026PSKYAfter market closesRiseDid not work
16 Apr 2026NFLXAfter market closesRiseDid not work
25 Feb 2026TKOAfter market closesFallDid not work

Useful guides

What does rise or fall mean?Why the number of examples mattersWhy one pattern may be luck