Tradour explained
Live validation tests a fixed candidate on future qualifying examples recorded before the results. It adds evidence without letting the rule learn from the answers being scored.
Make it click
A competition rulebook is signed before entrants perform. Changing scoring after seeing a difficult round creates a new competition, not validation of the old one.
Now put that into markets
Tradour versions the candidate, eligibility, outcome and timing, then logs every qualifying observation and later result.
Promotion thresholds, exclusions and review roles must be defined in advance. Rule changes create new versions and do not rewrite prior losses.
Check when the idea was recorded, the order of events, missing cases and every example counted. Compare the live result with the past claim and its uncertainty.
One favourable future event is not validation, and stopping after a good run biases the record. Adequate evidence depends on the pre-agreed design.
Takeaway
